Yikes! I'm down to three days to go. I'm hopping on my plane in the morning to head to Tempe. Many of the group are already there and I've been getting reports galore. Apparently the weather is awesome right now. Too bad a HEAT WAVE is on its way! Actually I'm not that concerned about the heat. I think we can deal with it just fine.
Now to my goals. They are really quite simple on the surface:
1. Swim the same or faster than last year (1:17)
2. Bike faster than last year (7:41, 14.6 mph)
3. Run faster than last year (6:21, 14:32 min/mile)
Digging a bit deeper though, there is far more to these goals.
1. Swim - this one has the least room for improvement although I think I have improved. I swam pretty well last year and would be fine with that time again. I think the absolute fastest I expect to go would be 1:10 and I'd be very disappointed with anything slower than 1:20. But I also have to remind myself we're talking about a few minutes here. So if it does end up being 1:22 or something like that I'm going to have to get over it REAL fast.
2. Bike - one of the two areas for the biggest improvement for me. Also pretty much a huge unknown in my ability come race day. I average 18.3 for 56 miles in Galveston at the Aquabike 2 weeks ago, but I did not have to run afterwards so I was able to really push it on the bike. I averaged 16.5 in my half ironman last fall. My long rides have all been anywhere from 16-18mph average. Therefore, I am going to aim for a 16-17mph average on Sunday, assuming the heat isn't debilitating and the wind isn't nearly as brutal as last year. That would give me a bike time anywhere from 6:35 to 7:00. Part of me thinks even asking to take 41 minutes off last year is asking too much, but I need to get out of that box of thinking I'm slow and not put such limits on myself.
3. Run - the other place I left room for huge improvement. Also the biggest wild card of the day after 112 miles of biking. I think this is where the heat will really affect people on the course, more so here than on the bike. You don't create near as much wind around you when you are running as you do biking. I ran the Houston Marathon last January (3 months before IMAZ) in 5:12. I ran the IMAZ marathon in 6:21. This year in January I ran Houston in 4:30. Assuming I can make the same kind of gains (which isn't really safe to assume at all), I'd hope to run at least a 5:30 marathon on Sunday. If everything fell into place and went perfectly for me, I think 4:48 (11:00 min/mile) is the fastest possible marathon I could pull off. I ran a 2:24 at the half Ironman in October and ran two stand-alone half marathons under 2 hours after Houston this year.
So, where does all this put me total? I'm going to assume 12 minutes for T1+T2. That is how long it took me last year. That may not be enough time considering I transitioned without a hitch last year, but generally I'm pretty good there. Fastest possible time (gees, I'm embarrassed to even write this because it seems so out of my league) is 12:45, and a more reasonable estimate is 13:30-14:00. Gees, even that still sounds scary! Oh well, there you have it. I put it out there for the world to see. Maybe that will make me stick to it a little more now.
Now to my goals. They are really quite simple on the surface:
1. Swim the same or faster than last year (1:17)
2. Bike faster than last year (7:41, 14.6 mph)
3. Run faster than last year (6:21, 14:32 min/mile)
Digging a bit deeper though, there is far more to these goals.
1. Swim - this one has the least room for improvement although I think I have improved. I swam pretty well last year and would be fine with that time again. I think the absolute fastest I expect to go would be 1:10 and I'd be very disappointed with anything slower than 1:20. But I also have to remind myself we're talking about a few minutes here. So if it does end up being 1:22 or something like that I'm going to have to get over it REAL fast.
2. Bike - one of the two areas for the biggest improvement for me. Also pretty much a huge unknown in my ability come race day. I average 18.3 for 56 miles in Galveston at the Aquabike 2 weeks ago, but I did not have to run afterwards so I was able to really push it on the bike. I averaged 16.5 in my half ironman last fall. My long rides have all been anywhere from 16-18mph average. Therefore, I am going to aim for a 16-17mph average on Sunday, assuming the heat isn't debilitating and the wind isn't nearly as brutal as last year. That would give me a bike time anywhere from 6:35 to 7:00. Part of me thinks even asking to take 41 minutes off last year is asking too much, but I need to get out of that box of thinking I'm slow and not put such limits on myself.
3. Run - the other place I left room for huge improvement. Also the biggest wild card of the day after 112 miles of biking. I think this is where the heat will really affect people on the course, more so here than on the bike. You don't create near as much wind around you when you are running as you do biking. I ran the Houston Marathon last January (3 months before IMAZ) in 5:12. I ran the IMAZ marathon in 6:21. This year in January I ran Houston in 4:30. Assuming I can make the same kind of gains (which isn't really safe to assume at all), I'd hope to run at least a 5:30 marathon on Sunday. If everything fell into place and went perfectly for me, I think 4:48 (11:00 min/mile) is the fastest possible marathon I could pull off. I ran a 2:24 at the half Ironman in October and ran two stand-alone half marathons under 2 hours after Houston this year.
So, where does all this put me total? I'm going to assume 12 minutes for T1+T2. That is how long it took me last year. That may not be enough time considering I transitioned without a hitch last year, but generally I'm pretty good there. Fastest possible time (gees, I'm embarrassed to even write this because it seems so out of my league) is 12:45, and a more reasonable estimate is 13:30-14:00. Gees, even that still sounds scary! Oh well, there you have it. I put it out there for the world to see. Maybe that will make me stick to it a little more now.
Comments
My answer??? Pee on the bike. If each pit stop took me 4 minutes, that would cut 24 minutes off my bike time!!! What do you think the pro athletes are doing??? Your bike will forgive you.
Whoo Hoo!!! We are getting close!!! I am excited for you. Buy as much M-Dot stuff as you can. Will you be home in time to wear it to the HRTC meeting on Monday night???
And to go with coachliz, if you feel guilty about peeing on your bike, buy it some new race wheels to ask for its forgiveness.
Go for it!!